Dion wins, but at a surprise?

I read a few articles on the Liberal Leadership winner Stephane Dion and was surprised to find out that people were surprised that he had won. I have over the months since the leadership race began always thought Dion would win. I knew he would come up the middle. How people were not able to predict it is beyond me.

If Ignatieff had won the Liberals would have lost votes to either the Greens, Cons or NDP. No actual Liberal would vote for Ignatieff as he does not represent what the Liberals are about. If Rae had won there is no way that the party would have won seats in Ontario without a good battle from the Cons, NDP or Greens. If Kennedy had won they would have been just as fine however with this need to win seats in Quebec it was smart to go with Dion.

I really should be sitting on a political strategy board or round table. It's all about dot connection. I get it, while others haven't a clue.